A Research Paper Presented To Air Force 2025

by

Disclaimer

2025 is a study designed to comply with a directive from the chief of staff of the Air Force to examine the concepts, capabilities, and technologies the United States will require to remain the dominant air and space force in the future. Presented on 17 June 1996, this report was produced in the Department of Defense school environment of academic freedom and in the interest of advancing concepts related to national defense. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States government.

1. Introduction
   • The Threat
   • Vulnerability
2. Social, Economic, and Political Implications
   • Social Implications
   • Economic Implications
     • Cost
     • Investment
   • Political Implications
     • Legal Aspects of Planetary Defense
     • European Perspective On Planetary Defense
     • Planetary Defense as a European Space Policy Priority
     • Alternate Futures and Political Outlook For Planetary Defense
3. Planetary Defense System
   • Mission and Required Capability
   • Required Capability Detection Concepts for 2025
   • Detection Subsystems
     • Current Detection Programs
     • Detection, Tracking, and Homing
     • Detection Concepts for 2025
   • Command, Control, Communications, and Computers, and Intelligence Subsystems
     • Unilateral US Command Elements
     • International Command Elements
     • Command Responsibilities-US Unilateral Action
     • C4I for Detection Subsystems
     • C4I for Mitigation Subsystems
     • Research and Development
     • Exploration
     • Exploitation
     • Command Relationships/Connectivity
     • Communications
     • Computers
     • Intelligence
     • C4I Summary
   • Mitigation Subsystems
     • Concept of Operations-A Three-Tier System
4. Dual-Use Benefits
5. Recommendations
   • Benefits
   • Issues
   • Investigative Recommendations

Executive Summary

Concern exists among an increasing number of scientists throughout the world regarding the possibility of a catastrophic event caused by an impact of a large earth-crossing object (ECO) on the Earth-Moon System (EMS), be it an asteroid or comet. Such events, although rare for large objects (greater than 1 kilometer diameter), are not unprecedented. Indeed, the great upheaval and resulting ice age that marked the extinction of the dinosaurs is thought to have been caused by the impact of a 10 km diameter asteroid. In 1908 a stony asteroid of approximately 50 meters diameter exploded in the air above the Tunguska River in Siberia, producing an equivalent yield of 15-30 megatons of TNT, and leveling over 2,000 square miles of dense forest. Such an event is thought to occur approximately every century. It is only a matter of time before the world finds itself in a crisis situation-a crisis involving the detection of a large ECO, leaving little time to react and resulting in global panic, chaos, and possible catastrophe.

Collectively as a global community, no current viable capability exists to defend the EMS against a large ECO, leaving its inhabitants vulnerable to possible death and destruction of untold proportion and even possible extinction of the human race. In this regard, a planetary defense system (PDS) capability should be resourced, developed, and deployed. At this time Planetary Defense is not an assigned or approved mission of the Department of Defense or the Air Force. Such a system would consist of a detection subsystem, command, control, communications, computer, and intelligence (C4I) subsystem and a mitigation subsystem. There are many potential variations of these subsystems which, with advances in novel technologies, will be available by 2025 to develop a credible PDS. We propose a three-tier system developed sequentially in time and space. Such a system would serve not only as a means to preserve life on earth, but also help to unite the global community in a common effort that would promote peaceful cooperation and economic prosperity as related spin-offs and dual uses of novel technologies evolve.

Editor's note: The full text of this paper is on the web at http://www.au.af.mil:80/au/2025/volume3/chap16/v3c16-1.htm